NASSAU, Bahamas – The Bahamas economy maintained its “moderated pace of growth” in October, relative to the same period last year, with economic indicators trending closer to their medium-term potential, the Central Bank of the Bahamas (CBB) has reported.
In its Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) October 2025 report, the central bank said that tourism output, while at healthy levels, tapered vis-à-vis the previous year, as the high value-added stopover segment remained constrained by capacity limitations and reduced demand from the United States market.
“Nonetheless, earnings from the cruise segment continued to register strong gains. In monetary developments, banking sector liquidity declined, despite the reduction in domestic credit, which outpaced the falloff in the deposit base,” the CBB said, noting however that externa reserves grew underpinned by net foreign currency inflows through the public and private sectors.
The CBB said that monthly data suggest that gains in tourism output continued to be paced by more tempered activity in the stopover segment, as a result of capacity constraints and lowered demand from US visitors. Nevertheless, the healthy growth in the cruise category was sustained.
Recent data from the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) revealed that total departures edged up by 0.1 per cent to 91,022 in October relative to the comparative period in the previous year.
Specifically, non-US international departures increased by 2.8 per cent to 16,159 compared to the same period of 2024. However, US departures fell by 0.4 per cent to 74,863.
The central bank said that on a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic declined by 2.4 per cent to 1.3 million, owing primarily to a 3.5 per cent reduction in US departures to 1.2 million. Providing some offset, non-US international departures rose by 4.4 percent to 0.2 million.
In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that room nights sold increased by 4.6 per cent to 36,124 vis-à-vis the same period in 2024. Correspondingly, the occupancy rate for entire place listing edged up to 39.8 per cent from 39.6per cent and hotel comparable listings, to 43.3per cent from 41.2 per cent.
The average daily room rate (ADR) reduced for entire place listings by 10.6 per cent to US$284.87 relative to the same period of 2024. Similarly, the corresponding ADR for hotel comparable listings fell by 4.3 per cent to US$136.56 in comparison to the previous year.
On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold rose by 3.1 per cent, and the average daily rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased by 20.9 per cent and three per cent respectively.
The CBB said that monetary sector developments for October featured a contraction in banking sector liquidity, despite the reduction in domestic credit, which outpaced the decline in the deposit base.
It said underlying to this outturn, excess reserves—a narrow measure of liquidity—decreased by US$90 million, exceeding the US$61.1 million falloff in the comparative 2024 period. Similarly, excess liquid assets—a broad measure of liquidity— contracted by US$76.6 million, extending the US$66.9 million retrenchment last year.
During the month of October, external reserves grew by US$123 million to US$2,929.8 million, a reversal from the US$9.3 million decline in the preceding year, owing in part to the receipt of net proceeds from the Government’s external borrowing activities.
The central bank said reflective of this development, its net foreign currency purchase from the public sector expanded to US$165.7 million, from US$18.6 million in the prior year. Conversely, the Bank’s net sales to commercial banks increased to US$43.8 million, from US$34.6 million in the previous year. Further, commercial banks’ net foreign currency outflows through customers advanced to US$45.3 million, from US$31.9 million the year earlier.
In its outlook for the domestic economy, the CBB said that projections are that the pace of growth in the domestic economy will moderate in 2025, relative to 2024, as economic indicators continue to approach their medium-term potential.
It said in particular, growth prospects are anticipated to remain significantly linked to developments in the tourism sector.
“Although a less dominant weight in tourism earnings, the cruise sector is poised to register robust gains. However, growth in the stopover segment—which remains dependent on trends in the U.S. market—is expected to be more tempered, reflecting accommodation constraints and more subdued consumer confidence in the United States.
“Beyond tourism, new and ongoing foreign investment projects, particularly those focused on onshore cruise-related attractions, are expected to support the continued expansion in the construction sector.”
The CBB said nevertheless, downside risks to the outlook have increased, against the backdrop of heightened tariffs on international trade and uncertainties surrounding major economies’ trade policies, both of which could dampen tourism demand and constrain global economic growth.
“In addition, external risks remain relevant, such as the direct and indirect effects of escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices,” it noted.
