WASHINGTON, DC – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Antigua and Barbuda’s economic expansion continued in 2025, supported by a pickup in construction, alongside easing inflationary pressures.
An IMF delegation headed by economist, David Moore, has ended a two week mission to the Caribbean island, noting that the most recent data indicate real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2½ per cent in 2024, reflecting a mix of strong tourist arrivals and slower construction activity.
It said that for 2025, staff estimates growth at three per cent, reflecting instead a mix of rebounding construction activity but flat tourist arrivals. Inflation, which had averaged 6.2 per cent in 2024, moderated to an estimated 1.2 per cent in 2025, in part reflecting substantial one-off declines in transportation prices.
The public debt burden has eased substantially in recent years, but significant arrears and financing needs are ongoing challenges.
The IMF said that the debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked around 100 per cent during the pandemic shock in 2020, has since fallen to an estimated 68 per cent in 2025, narrowing the gap with the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) benchmark of 60 per cent by 2035.
Nevertheless, substantial arrears to Paris Club and domestic creditors, and high gross financing needs, have persisted with the IMF noting that the authorities are continuing the process of validating the extent of their arrears to domestic suppliers and are pursuing a liability management operation with a view to refinancing domestic debt, reducing arrears, and financing resilience-building projects.
The IMF said the country’s fiscal position strengthened in 2024–25, reflecting both improved tax collections and one-off effects.
In 2024, the fiscal primary balance improved to four per cent of GDP, up 3½ percentage points from 2023, reflecting a combination of increases in several indirect taxes and one-off asset forfeiture receipts.
In 2025, the estimated primary balance reached nearly five per cent of GDP, underpinned by higher tax revenues, stronger inflows under the Citizenship by Investment Programme (CBI), restraint in current spending, and a modest increase in capital spending.
Tax revenues reached just over 18 per cent of GDP in 2025, an increase of nearly 1½ percentage points from 2024, albeit largely reflecting one-off collections of tax arrears.
The current account deficit widened in 2025. After narrowing sharply in 2024 to around 7½ per cent of GDP, the current account deficit in 2025 is estimated to have reverted to around 11½ per cent of GDP, due mainly to increased construction-related imports and flattening tourist arrivals.
The IMF said foreign direct investment inflows continued to finance the current account deficit, supplemented by higher CBI-related capital transfers. The external position in 2025 is assessed as moderately weaker than implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.
The Washington-based financial institution said overall financial system remains stable and liquid. Credit growth has moderated: bank lending to the private sector decelerated from 12½ per cent in the year to end-2024 to just below five per cent in the year to November 2025, while credit union lending growth moderated from six per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 5¼ per cent in the third quarter of 2025.
The IMF mission said that banks’ nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios have remained below the five per cent prudential threshold since end-2024, though credit union NPLs remain somewhat higher.
The ECCU regional credit bureau has been launched in Antigua and Barbuda for banks and two credit unions, with plans to expand coverage to other credit unions.
In its outlook for Antigua and Barbuda, the IMF said it expects the country’s economic expansion to continue at a stable pace.
It is projecting real GDP growth in 2026 of 2.8 per cent, converging in the medium term to the estimated potential growth rate of 2½ per cent.
“This projection assumes a pickup in visitor arrivals, supported by Antigua and Barbuda’s hosting of events including the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in November 2026, and expanded room capacity and port facilities.”
The IMF mission projects inflation to stabilise at around two per cent by end-2026, converging to levels in ECCU peers and the United States.
The current account deficit is expected to narrow modestly from 11½ per cent of GDP in 2025 to 10¾ per cent in 2026 and to continue gradually improving over the medium term.
The IMF mission’s baseline envisages a further gradual decline in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, consistent with meeting the regional debt target – 60 per cent of GDP before 2035 – but with arrears and high financing needs yet to be fully addressed.
It said risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside amid global headwinds, but upside risks are significant as well.
“External risks include prolonged global uncertainty, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, and commodity price volatility, which could potentially dampen financial inflows and growth prospects.
CBI-related inflows are subject to downside risks following recent US travel policy announcements. Additional downside risks stem from vulnerabilities related to extreme weather events and capacity constraints in the construction sector.
The IMF said there are also significant upside risks, including stronger tourism demand; greater payoffs from investments in improved air connectivity, development of new cruise facilities, and hosting of special events; and accelerated progress in implementing productivity-enhancing structural reforms.
The IMF said the 2026 budget envisages improved revenue performance and higher investment, underpinned by robust economic growth.
“The 2026 Budget Statement projects strong gains from the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax (ABST), property tax, and import duties, based on projected real GDP growth of five per cent. The budget also envisages further collection of tax arrears, additional efforts to strengthen tax compliance, and continued CBI inflows.
“On the spending side, the budget projects capital spending to increase to around 3½ percent of GDP, up some two percentage points from the estimated 2025 outturn.
